![]() TechCrunch+ members receive access to weekly “Dear Sophie” columns use promo code ALCORN to purchase a one- or two-year subscription for 50% off. “Whether you’re in people ops, a founder or seeking a job in Silicon Valley, I would love to answer your questions in my next column.” “Your questions are vital to the spread of knowledge that allows people all over the world to rise above borders and pursue their dreams,” says Sophie Alcorn, a Silicon Valley immigration attorney. Here’s another edition of “Dear Sophie,” the advice column that answers immigration-related questions about working at technology companies. Ask Sophie: What should we know about the next H-1B lottery?.Ask Sophie: How can I move to the US to join my co-founder?.Unfortunately, in US immigration, you kind of have to realistically assume the worst if you're not a citizen. We have to also factor in many other aspects such as they prioritize USC over LPR for interviews etc. Many consulate and embassy were close, causing the consumption to drop despite applications were only growing. Current consumption rate drops drastically for whatever reason to a point we have more to spare in FY23. New FY24 F2A visa becomes available and the current consumption rate is not able to use all of that countĢ. IMO, the only way they move the date forward comes from these two scenariosġ. In fact, it's guaranteed we have way more applications before Sept 2020 than the available visa count in FY23, otherwise they would not even need to warn another retrogression happening soon. Therefore it is not necessary they move the date forward if and only if they clear out all the applications before the current PD on visa bulletin. DOS adjusts the visa bulletin based on the consumption rate rather than entirely on the number of actual applications. ![]() Unless there was a large backlog before this year, we should at least reach August 2022 by September 2024. (They use the term "documentarily qualified" which essentially means ready for final adjudication if a visa is available.)Īnother reason I'm optimistic about forward movement is that we have 82,888+ visas between this year (48454 visas this year -> 197000 *. Hence, the dates can be moved forward to accommodate those who are ready for approval, so as to meet the monthly target of visa usage. If the PERM person files their I-485 in October 2023 (because of the current retrogression), they won't need a visa immediately. Example: someone who filed an EB2 NIW app in September 2022, got approved in Dec and filed the I-485 in January 2023 may have already gone through the clearance steps by October 2023 versus a PERM based I-140 filer whose PD is in July 2022 and hasn't even filed the I-485 yet. DoS might move the dates aggressively to drum up demand for folks who are close to the finish line. You need to go for a biometrics appointment and they need to run background checks and so on. For instance, not everyone who is current may apply in a given month (some people are slower than others and will take 3 months to file, some take 2 months etc.) Additionally, even if you submit an I-485 in a month, that doesn't mean that you will use a visa number immediately in the same month. I'm hesitant to predict specific dates because dates are not based solely on the number of approved I-140 petitions. I think September 2022 will be current by the start of the 4th quarter or possibly earlier. If they stick to a strict limit of about 2869 visas a month (34434 visas/12 months), then I think we will reach August 2022 by April or earlier. It depends on how they do the allocation. ![]() ![]() I'm hesitant to predict specific dates, but I think August 22 will be current by April 2024 (beginning of third quarter of FY 24) or possibly earlier. That's not enough to make ROW current but the dates can definitely move to August or Sept 2022 in FY 24 We get an additional 34434 visas for ROW in October (140000 *. Unless USCIS screwed up big time, we're likely to see several months worth of movement by December 2023 for ROW (maybe not October specifically). India has over 350,000+ approved petitions in EB2 waiting for visas (not even counting dependents which can double the number) but an allocation of roughly 2802 visas a year. they must wait later than October to see what ROW does). That's why DoS and USCIS must wait to learn a little more about ROW demand before advancing India dates rapidly (i.e. India and China can only move rapidly if there is low demand from ROW, and the number of "not-needed" ROW visas that can be given to India is high. The reason it doesn't move rapidly for those countries is that they have very high demand and a low allocation (generally 7% of available visas). Most of the backlog in EB2 before this year was from India and China.
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